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Victory of Iran in the U.S./Israel–Iran Conflict

                                                    The United States and Iran have reached a memorandum of ...

The conflict between the United States, Israel, and Iran, which began on 28 February 2026, ended on 18 June 2026 with the signing of an agreement between the United States and Iran. After suffering heavy casualties and extensive destruction of infrastructure and assets, the war came to an end with a negotiated settlement. From the perspective of war objectives, a victory is generally considered to have been achieved when the defeated side is compelled to negotiate and accept terms that serve the strategic and economic interests of the victorious side.

 

The United States and Israel initiated military operations against Iran under the assumption that Iran was militarily and economically weak. However, the outcome of the conflict suggested otherwise. According to the terms agreed upon at the negotiating table, Iran appears to have secured several important concessions. The agreement contained the following fourteen points:

 

  1. An end to the conflict on all fronts, including Lebanon.
  2. Mutual respect for each other's sovereignty, territorial integrity, and internal affairs.
  3. An extendable 60-day period for negotiating and reaching a final agreement.
  4. The complete lifting of the U.S. blockade within 30 days, including the withdrawal of American forces from the vicinity of Iran.
  5. Iran's commitment to ensuring the safe passage of commercial vessels through the Strait of Hormuz without imposing any charges.
  6. A reconstruction and economic development package worth US$300 billion to be provided by the United States and regional partners.
  7. The termination of all economic sanctions imposed on Iran, including those arising from United Nations Security Council resolutions and unilateral U.S. measures.
  8. Iran's commitment not to acquire nuclear weapons, with arrangements to be made regarding its stockpile of enriched uranium.
  9. Maintenance of the status quo regarding Iran's nuclear programme until the issue of enriched uranium is resolved.
  10. A commitment by the United States not to impose new sanctions and to grant waivers enabling Iran to export oil, petroleum products, and related services, including banking and transportation.
  11. The release of Iran's frozen or restricted funds by the United States.
  12. The establishment of a mechanism to monitor the implementation of the Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) and compliance with any future agreement.
  13. Further negotiations aimed at achieving a final settlement following the signing and implementation of the MoU.
  14. Endorsement of the final agreement through a binding resolution of the United Nations Security Council.

 

Among these fourteen provisions, only Point 8 may be viewed as unfavourable to Iran, as it restricts the pursuit of capabilities associated with nuclear weapons. However, Iran has consistently maintained that its nuclear programme is intended solely for peaceful purposes and that it has no intention of developing nuclear weapons. Several other provisions relate merely to implementation and monitoring mechanisms, while the remaining clauses either preserve the status quo or are favourable to Iran.

 

Throughout the conflict, Iran did not surrender to the United States. In international relations, the side that secures greater advantages at the negotiating table is often regarded as the victor. Judged from this perspective, the terms of the agreement indicate that Iran emerged from the conflict in a relatively advantageous position. Consequently, one may argue that Iran achieved a significant political and strategic success against the military power of the United States.

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