India is facing a grave problem of poor legislative productivity for last more than two decade whenever single party is not getting absolute or simple majority to form government and as a result coalition government of multi parties are formed. It started since 1977, when Janata Party came into power, legislative productivity started decreasing. Though Janata Party was theoritically a single party government, but in real sense it was amalgamation of many parties of diverse ideologies which came together to overthrow Indira Gandhi led Congress government that imposed emergency rule in 1975. In that sense Janata Party was practically a coalition goverment.
It has been observed that in a coalition government legislative productivity in India broadly depends on the numerical strength of member of major ruling party and legislative experience of major ruling party in coalition. In coalition government, except major national party, other members of coalition are generally regional parties whose aspirations are different than national parties because their interest basically lies on regional issues and sometimes they also do not support to their own government on certain policy issues reducing legislative productivity. As this trend of coalition government is continuing since 1990s till now which has drastically reduced the legislative productivity and quality leading to policy paralysis and as same trend of coalition government is also likely to continue in future, India need to devise a mechanism to get rid of this problem of policy paralysis, even if required by suitably amending the constitution.
Recently, state assembly elections were held in last week of November and first week of December, 2013 in five States of India and result came out on 8th and 9th December, 2013. The five states where elections were held were Madhya Pradesh (M P), Chattisgarh, Rajasthan, Delhi and Mizoram. These elections were also termed by many political pundits as a semi final of Lok Sabha ( Lower House of Parliament) Elections to be held in first half of 2014 sometimes in May. Out of these five State Assembly Elections, BJP ( Bhartiya Janata Party) won elections in Rajsthan and M P with thumping majority, while in Chhattisgarh, it won with simple majority and in Delhi it won maximum number of seats but failed to secure a simple majority due to shortage of 5 seats. Indian National congress (Congress) presently ruling at centre could save its face by winning the election only in state of Mizoram.
Are the results of these elections reflects the likely outcome of 2014 parliamentary elections, and if it is so then how it is going to affect two major national parties i.e. Congress and BJP? As very little time is left for incumbent central government led by Congress to change its image of a corrupt, non performing government on account of slow economic development, poor law and order situation, inapt handling of international affairs and failure in handling inflation, current account deficit etc through actions and descernible result is very bleak. Therefore, these results will be reflected in 2014 Lok Sabha elections also that goes in favour of BJP. Retaining two of the states i.e. Mahya Pradesh and Chhattisgarh by BJP even after considering the anti incumbancy factor reflects the confidence reposed by public specially in M P and Chhattisgarh. Rajasthan was taken over by BJP from Congress that shows people in Rajasthan have lost the confidence in Congress and are in favour og BJP. Delhi is an interesting case now. Though, here BJP is single largest party , but it could not secure adequate seat to form even simple majority government. Here a new political force from social activism emerged in form of Aam Adami Party (AAP) that became an alternative to BJP in Delhi. Though Shiela Dixit government led Cogress did well in Delhi in last fifteen years, but she had to take the wrath of mideeds of central government. It appears that people are more dissatisfied with the performance of Congress led government at centre. The case of Mizoram is entirely different as elections in Mizoram is highly influenced by Churches and NGOs.
Therefore, it is clearly evident that result of this election is reflection of poor performance of Cogress government at centre and people are searching alternatives in BJP led by Modi or any other new force such as AAP who could fulfil aspirations of people. But as AAP is concentrated in and around Delhi, the out come of Lok Shabha elections are likely to shift in favour of BJP, if AAP does not appear on national scenario in big way till Lok Sabha elections in 2014 .
Indian Space Research Organization (ISRO) of India has launched its first Mars orbiter Mangalyaan yesterday on 5th November, 2013. Though its success is yet to be watched when it successfully leaves earth's orbit for Mars and successfully enters into orbit of Mars and performs its intended job. However, mixed reactions from the nations and media across the globe as well as from various sections within India have started pouring in. Some of them applauded its achievements made so far, some of them criticised it for not being citizen centric or not having value for money spent on this project, while some of them criticised this mission as a wastage of money for country like India where millions of people are poor. In fact, it should be highly appreciated even if it reaches to Mars and orbit it and performs minimal function of taking even some photographs, as this exercise will build up the capacity of ISRO scientist and enhence their confidence which is a must for progress and development in any field and specially in science and technology.
The main value for money of this project is capacity building of scientists and engineers of ISRO, gaining confidence and experinces. Moreover, if this project is not citizen centric, then are many basic science and defence projects which are also not citizen centric, but can these projects be abandoned. The answer is big No, as in due course of time many basic science, defence and space science projects finds application in solving problems of day to day life of human beings and becomes citizen centric. Those criticizing it as a wastage of money for a country like India where millions of people are poor, must also understand that there are many projects worth billions of rupees in social, economic, science including defence sectors that did not see the light of the day, and even somehow it could be implemented it did not achieve its intended objectives. So, it does not mean that we should abandon all such projects. A country should make an endeavour to make progress in all the spheres of life, be it society, economy, polity, culture or science and technology. If it could not do better as expected in one sphere of life, it does not mean that it should abandon other activities. If poverty could not be alleviated despite so many program and projects it does not mean that space research should be discouraged or stopped which is doing well.
India and especially ISRO scientists must be applauded for their achievements made so far in successfully launching Mangalyaan and India should feel proud of its achievements despite the fact that lot of poor people are there in this country.
People normally believe that whatever is written in history books, everything is correct. This is not always so, as history is written by powerful people, their descendents or ardent followers of their ideologies as per their political gains and conveniences. A clear testimony of the same can be seen by comparing the contents of Indian history and Pakistani history before independence in their respective history books taught in India and Pakistan, though before independence both shared the same history.
The statement of Narendra Modi about Sardar Vallabh Bhai Patel that it was unfortunate that Sardar Patel was not made first prime minister of India, otherwise fate and shape of India would have been different (better) has sent a ripple in political and social groups and media. Some of the political parties are feeling very much ofended. There is no doubt that what Sardar Patel did at that time in unifying India by merging about 563 independent princely states, no other contemporary leader could have done. Pt. Jawahar Lal Nehru handled Jammu and Kashmir, and China and we see the result. Some political commentators are questioning why Gandhi ji did not choose Sardar Patel to become first prime minister of India if he was more competent than Pt. Nehru. Gandhi ji was more of a saint rather than a statesman or politician. So, his preferences for Pt. Nehru may not construed as Sardar Patel was inferior to Pt. Nehru to hold the post of first prime minister of India. Unfortunately, Sardar Patel was not given the right place in history of India which he deserved as it is amply clear from the names given to various national schemese, projects, institutions, ports and roads etc which rarely finds the name of Sardar Patel compared to name of Pt. Nehru and members of his family.
If Narendra Modi is trying to give right place to Saradar Patel in History of India as he rightly deserves, why there is so hue and cry in certain political parties. Towering political personalities gets continuosly evaluated over centuries for their deeds. Sometimes they are ressurected and sometimes they are burried also.
Conflicts and wars take place for excercising control over resouces. These resources can be economic, political or ideological or a combination of these. Among many economic resources, energy resource is one among them. After industrial revolution in 18th century, energy resources were accorded higher priority for economic and social development by early industrialized countries and subsequently by latecomers and other developing countries. However, at the later stage when many countries especially the developed one started realizing that conventional energy resources are finite and will not last long at present rate of consumption and non availability of the same would adversely affect their socioeconomic development, they started acquiring energy resources and especially oil of other energy rich countrries that led to many covert conflicts among nations competeting for acquiring energy resources of the energy rich countries. This energy and especially oil led conflict even resulted in regime change in many countries especially in twentieth century. Renewable energy has immense potential to fulfil the needs of mankind and if the same can be properly tapped, at least energy related conflicts can be ward off to a great extent and relatively more peace at global level can be established. However, promotion of renewable will alter economic, global political status of many countries and international relations among them and to maintain stausquo energy rich countries can try to thwart the development of renewable energy resources.
The basic purpose of war is to exercise control over various economic and political resouces in the interest of the nation. With technological advancement, capability of means of war i.e. capability of weapons and other equipment and supplies of war has increased many folds making it highly lethal. As the lethality of means of war will increase, less wars will be fought and scale of war will be low and more conventional to avoid large scale war using sophisticated lethal weapons including NBC. This will be more so when military capability gap between the countries at conflict is low and government in both the countries at conflict have a responsible and reasonably strong government. If government of one of the country in conflict is dictator or weak and under influence of some radical group, then even use of NBC can not be ruled out. However, countries will continue to upgrade their military capability in order to pre-empt or deter their perceived enemies for any military misadventure against them. Terrorism will be growing phenomenon where countries at conflict are highly unequal in their military capbility. Between the countries having advance and almost equal military capabilities, mostly proxy war will be fought. Soft power will be used more to pursuit economic interest instead of waging war.Globalization of trade and commerce will also be a prohibiting factor in escalation of war as it will be against economic interest of the countries at conflict if they are heavily dependent on each other for trade.
Apart from cross border terrorism, India is facing internal terrorism from people of its land i.e. Naxal Terrorism. On 25th May, 2013 Chhattisgarh State of India saw another wrath of Naxals in which it is reported that 27 persons were killed and 36 injured. This time the victims were not only the security forces, but also eminent political leaders of the state. This has increased the concern of Government and political parties more. Even after more than four decades of Naxal movement, no effective solution to this problem appears in the offing. Only armed action by security forces against Naxals will not bring any long term solution.
The root cause of Naxal Movement is well known to experts in government and outside. However, Naxal Movement has deviated from its ideologies and more so in their actions of armed struggle over the years. What is needed is to analyze root causes of this problem and take corrective actions. For success of any armed or unarmed movement and struggle, three things play an important role: framing of issues or ideologies; resources for movement and struggle; and political, social and environmental opportunity structure. The government needs to utilize these tools to address the issue of Naxalism. Government needs to come up with proper communication strategies with appropriate content aimed at reaching out to the Naxal cadre and especially the foot soldiers of Naxal to counter the ideologies and actions of Naxals. The sources and flow of the financial and other material resources required to sustain this movement need to be identifies and severed off. Redistribution of economic and environmental resources are at the core of this problem. Government may initiate dialogue with intellectuals and moderates in Naxal cadre to find a pragmatic solution within constitutional framework that can fulfill the legitimate aspirations of Naxalites or at least can instill a hope through some visible action that Government is willing and would fulfill their aspirations in near future.
Chinese army, PLA ( People's Liberation Army) has intruded in Ladakh sector of India in mid of April 2013. This is highly embarrassing for India, when there is no strong reaction from Indian government even after a fortnight has lapsed after intrusion. Though there are border disputes between India and China since long, but both the countries have not escalated this issue for the sake of pursuing their economic and other developmental goals. But all of the sudden, why China has shown a tough posture towards India needs to be seen through Chinese perspective. It appears that indirect involvement of India in South China Sea affairs, projection of India as emerging power in Asia to contain China by America and its allies and increasing Indo-Japan relation ( to be seen in background of East China Sea affairs especially senkaku island) are some of the probable reason for intrusion by China in Ladakh sector of India. China wants to give an indirect message to ASEAN countries having stake in South China SEA that don't bank on India. And similar message is there to Japan for Senkaku island. Moreover, there is indirect message to India by China that don't try to be over smart in international relations where china has a stake.
Here, India should have shown a tough posture against China, but Indian leadership failed miserably in eyes of its own people as well as international community. Now, even if China retreat through diplomatic efforts or back door negotiations, the image of India has been seriously damaged in international community at least for more than a decade.
Asia and Africa region have relatively poor access to safe drinking water and sanitation facilities and access is further skewed among these regions. Moreover, it is predicted that global population will grow from 7 billion at present to 9 billion by 2050 and major hub of population growth would be Asia. Water resources would be extremely stressed on many accounts such as population pressure, pressure of degradation, inequitable distribution, improper management, and climate change. Moreover, if water resources of transnational rivers and basins are diverted by China for meeting its lone economic needs ignoring the riparian rights of countries located at downstream, it will further stress the fresh water availability in some of the regions in Asia. This would adversely affect opportunity and economic activities in agriculture, industry and commerce making life of the the people more difficult in some of the neighboring countries of China. This would further lead to migration of people from disadvantageous locations to advantageous locations within the country as well as to the countries in search of better opportunities. Again it will put pressure on various resources including water at hot spot of migration and lead to inter-regional conflict within country as well as international conflict. There are about 185 prominent water related conflicts that have been compiled from 3000 BC to present day , in which water is either a cause or it has been used as tool in conflict. But, if the conflict takes place at this time, perhaps its intensity and scale would be very high.
Therefore, international organization like U N (United Nations) must come forward to frame a rules that is binding on all member countries on the sharing the water resources of transnational rivers based on the existing successful bilateral treaties on water sharing arrangements to avoid water related conflicts.
Consecutively three times democratically elected Chief Minister of state of Gujarat in India under whose tenure Gujarat has economically developed at fastest rate was invited by prestigious Wharton Business School, USA to deliver keynote address via video conferencing in its 17th Wharton India Economic Forum to be held on 23rd March, 2013 and subsequently his invitation was cancelled stating the reason that a section of professors, students and alumnae are opposing the keynote address by Mr. Modi. The reason given for this type of action and dirty politics may not be acceptable to the rational people across the globe. This appears to be premeditated course of action to politically malign the image of Mr. Narendra Modi. It is not understood why Mr. Narendra Modi was invited to address in this forum without consulting all those who matters in such decision making. Proper decision making is one of the basic lessons of business schools, and if this is the level of decision making in one of the renowned business schools, we can understand very well that what would be its quality and credentials. In a business school of this stature, I do not think that such decisions are taken by organizers without taking in confidence Board of Directors and Advisers of the Institute. Therefore, this decision of inviting Mr. Modi and subsequently cancelling the invitation to deliver Key Note address at Wharton has been taken on behest of some government or interest group inimical to Mr. Modi with malafide intention to malign the political image of Mr Narendra Modi.