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2013 Assembly Elections in Five States of India: An Indicator of Outcome for 2014 Lok Sabha Polls

Recently, state assembly elections were held in last week of November and  first week of December, 2013 in five States of India and result came out on 8th and 9th December, 2013. The five states where elections were held were Madhya Pradesh (M P), Chattisgarh, Rajasthan, Delhi and Mizoram. These elections were also termed by many political pundits as a semi final of Lok Sabha ( Lower House of Parliament) Elections to be held in first half of  2014 sometimes in May. Out of these five State Assembly Elections, BJP ( Bhartiya Janata Party) won elections in Rajsthan and M P with thumping majority, while in Chhattisgarh, it won with simple majority and in Delhi it won maximum number of seats but failed to secure a simple majority due to shortage of 5 seats. Indian National congress (Congress)  presently ruling at centre could save its face by winning the election only  in state of Mizoram. 

Are the results of these elections reflects the likely outcome of 2014 parliamentary elections, and if it is so then how it is going to affect two major national parties i.e. Congress and BJP? As very little time is left for incumbent central government led by Congress to change its image of a corrupt, non performing government on account of slow economic development, poor law and order situation, inapt handling of international affairs and failure in handling inflation, current account deficit etc through actions and descernible result is very bleak. Therefore, these results will be reflected in 2014 Lok Sabha elections also that goes in favour of BJP. Retaining two of the states i.e. Mahya Pradesh and Chhattisgarh by BJP even after considering the anti incumbancy factor reflects the confidence reposed by public specially in M P and Chhattisgarh. Rajasthan was taken over by BJP from Congress that shows people in Rajasthan have lost the confidence in Congress and are in favour og BJP. Delhi is an interesting case now. Though, here BJP is single largest party , but it could not secure adequate seat to form even simple majority government. Here a new  political force from social activism emerged  in form of Aam Adami Party (AAP) that became an alternative to BJP in Delhi. Though  Shiela Dixit government led Cogress did well in Delhi in last fifteen years, but she had to take the wrath of mideeds of central government. It appears that people are more dissatisfied with the performance of  Congress led government at centre. The case of Mizoram is entirely different as elections in Mizoram is highly influenced by Churches and NGOs.

Therefore, it is clearly evident that result of this election is reflection of poor performance of Cogress government at centre and people are searching alternatives in BJP led by Modi or any other new force such as AAP who could fulfil aspirations of people.  But as AAP is concentrated in and around Delhi, the out come of Lok Shabha elections are likely to shift in favour of BJP, if AAP does not appear on national scenario in big way till Lok Sabha elections in 2014 .

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