The ongoing U.S.–Israel and Iran conflict has placed Pakistan in a deeply complex diplomatic position. Its long-standing strategy of balancing multiple global relationships is now being tested, creating what can best be described as a diplomatic dilemma.

At the heart of the issue lies a complicated web of alliances. The major powers involved in this conflict are the United States, China, Iran, and Saudi Arabia, and all these countries maintain significant relationships with Pakistan, both formal and informal. Broadly speaking, the United States and Saudi Arabia are aligned against Iran, while China is seen as a covert supporter of Iran. This geopolitical divide places Pakistan in an increasingly difficult position.

Pakistan has historically maintained a close, though often uneasy, relationship with the United States. It played a key role in supporting U.S. operations in Afghanistan after 9/11, gaining both financial assistance and strategic leverage. However, this relationship has been marked by mistrust at times, particularly due to allegations of Pakistan’s “double game,” including the presence of Osama bin Laden in Pakistan.

More recently, statements by Donald Trump praising Pakistan’s military leadership have been interpreted by some as an attempt to secure Pakistan’s support in potential regional military operations. Additionally, the U.S. has extended financial assistance, supported Pakistan in securing IMF funding, and approved a $686 million package to upgrade its F-16 fleet, and to provide communications systems, software, and security equipment.

These developments suggest that the United States may expect Pakistan to reciprocate by supporting its stance against Iran. This expectation adds pressure on Pakistan to align with U.S. strategic objectives in Iran.

Pakistan has long relied on Saudi Arabia for financial assistance and economic support. Recently, both countries strengthened their relationship through a defense agreement stating that an attack on one would be considered an attack on the other.

Given the escalating tensions between Iran and Saudi Arabia, this agreement places Pakistan in a sensitive position. Saudi Arabia may expect Pakistan to provide military or strategic support. However, Pakistan has so far avoided direct involvement, indicating its reluctance to escalate the situation.

China is widely regarded as Pakistan’s most reliable strategic partner. Through large-scale investments and initiatives, China has significantly contributed to Pakistan’s economic and military development. At the same time, China is believed to be indirectly supporting Iran.

This creates another layer of complexity. Pakistan must consider its obligations to China, especially if Beijing continues to back Iran in the conflict, even if only covertly

Geographically and culturally, Pakistan shares important ties with Iran. Both countries are neighbors and maintain generally stable relations, despite occasional border tensions. They also share certain ideological alignments, including opposition to Israel.

However, Pakistan is cautious about engaging in any conflict with Iran. Given Iran’s regional influence and military capabilities, direct confrontation would carry significant risks. As a result, Pakistan prefers to maintain neutrality rather than be drawn into conflict.

Faced with competing expectations from multiple allies, Pakistan appears to be pursuing a strategy of strategic neutrality. Rather than choosing sides, it is attempting to avoid direct involvement in the conflict.

It appears that Pakistan’s recent military actions in Afghanistan may serve as a way to signal that it is already engaged elsewhere, thereby limiting its ability to participate in another conflict. Additionally, Pakistan has offered to mediate between the United States and Iran, positioning itself as a diplomatic bridge rather than a combatant.

At the same time, incidents such as a blast near the Pakistan embassy in Iran though fortunately without casualties and statements by Tulsi Gabbard, Director, CIA highlighting nuclear concerns that Pakistan is among the countries that pose nuclear threats to the U.S., along with China, Russia, North Korea, and Iran have further complicated the situation.

Pakistan finds itself in a precarious diplomatic position. On one side are the United States and Saudi Arabia; on the other are China and Iran. Each relationship carries strategic importance, making it difficult for Pakistan to fully align with any one bloc.

In this context, Pakistan’s cautious approach of avoiding direct involvement while promoting mediation between Iran and the US appears to be an attempt to safeguard its national interests. However, as the conflict evolves, maintaining this delicate balance may become increasingly challenging for Pakistan.