The terrorist strike targeting Hindu tourists in Pahalgam on 24 April 2025, which claimed the lives of 26 visitors, enraged the people and government of India, and shocked many peace-loving individuals across the world. Responsibility for this atrocity was claimed by The Resistance Front (TRF), a militant group affiliated with Lashkar-e-Taiba (LeT), founded by the internationally designated terrorist Hafiz Saeed of Pakistan, who enjoys the backing of the Pakistan Army. The Defence Minister of Pakistan has himself admitted that Pakistan has been nurturing terrorism on its soil for over three decades. There is, therefore, little doubt that the Pahalgam attack was carried out by Pakistani terrorists with the support of the Pakistan Army.

Since the abrogation of Article 370, the number of terrorist incidents in Jammu and Kashmir has fallen sharply — by 81 per cent — from 228 in 2018 to 43 in 2023. Similarly, there has been a 74 per cent reduction in encounters, from 189 in 2018 to 48 in 2023, a drop in civilian fatalities from 55 in 2018 to 13 in 2023, and a fall in security personnel deaths from 91 in 2018 to 25 in 2023. Although terrorist activity and related casualties have declined across the Kashmir Valley and the wider Union Territory during this period, incidents have risen in the Jammu region, which has a Hindu-majority population. For example, on 9 June 2024, terrorists ambushed a tourist bus in Reasi district, killing nine Hindu pilgrims and injuring 41 others. This pattern clearly indicates that terrorists sent by the Pakistan Army have shifted their focus from Kashmir to Jammu and are deliberately targeting Hindus.

The question arises: why did Pakistan dare to perpetrate the Pahalgam attack despite the severe retaliatory strikes by the Indian Armed Forces, such as those on Uri and Balakot, in response to earlier Pakistani-sponsored attacks? To understand this, one must examine the sequence of events unfolding both within Pakistan and internationally.

Pakistan is currently facing persistent separatist movements in Balochistan, Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, Pakistan-occupied Kashmir, and Sindh. These pose a serious challenge to Pakistan’s internal stability and territorial integrity. In times of such crises, Pakistan has historically resorted to anti-Hindu and anti-India rhetoric to unite its populace — a strategy rooted in the circumstances of its creation. On 17 April 2025, Pakistan’s Army Chief, General Asim Munir, told a gathering of expatriates in Islamabad, “We are different from Hindus in every possible way.” This was a desperate attempt to foster national unity by appealing to anti-Hindu and anti-India sentiment. The Pahalgam attack can be seen as a direct operational outcome of this divisive narrative.

Further, on 30 March 2025, the US President Donald Trump threatened military action against Iran if it failed to reach a nuclear agreement. Iran rejected these overtures, provoking US anger. Anticipating possible military action against Iran, the United States would have recognised the strategic and logistical importance of Pakistan, which shares a border with Iran. It is likely that during this period, Washington sought Pakistan’s cooperation, thereby emboldening General Asim Munir to carry out a terrorist strike in India, specifically targeting Hindus on 24 April 2025 in Pahalgam.

In response to the Pahalgam attack, India launched Operation Sindoor on 7 May 2025 to dismantle Pakistan’s terror infrastructure. Pakistan retaliated by attacking Indian territory, prompting the Indian Army to launch a military operation that destroyed significant Pakistani military assets. Following heavy losses, Pakistan sought US mediation for a ceasefire. On the advice of Washington, Pakistan’s Director General of Military Operations (DGMO) approached his Indian counterpart, resulting in a ceasefire on 10 May 2025.

Shortly thereafter, Pakistan received a US$1 billion IMF loan tranche despite India’s strong objections, citing that the funds would be used to finance terrorism. This disbursement would not have been possible without US support. Thus, Pakistan’s renewed engagement with the United States likely gave it the confidence to execute the Pahalgam terror attack.