The US President Biden has announced recently that the US forces will withdraw from Afghanistan from 11th September 2021. The withdrawal of the US forces without amicable settllement of the governance issues and sharing of political power between Afghan government and the Talibans would have very severe implications and unpleasant consequences imposing heavy cost  not only to Afghanistan, but entire South Asia and many other countries across the globe. The outcome of the peace talk sheduled to be held in Turkey in the last week of April 2021 is not known as it will have some bearing on peaceful withdrawal of American forces Afghanistan and aftermath.

Taliban controls about 20 percent of the Afghan territory with some 60,000 to 80,000 permanent fighters. Afghan government at Kabul control around 30 per cent of Afghan territory. Rest of the territory is contested between both Afghan government and Taliban. Though Taliban is more or less spread in entire Afghanistan in pockets but, but its power and strength is concentrated in South East provinces of Helmand, Kandahar, and Uruzgan which is very near to Pakistan border. On resource front, Talibans are well placed as they control business of around US$ 400 billions from cultivation and trade of opium and its derivatives. Apart from this, they get covert funding support from many countries including Pakistan through ISI. On financial front, condition of Afghan government in Kabul is not good as around 70 percent of the expenditure of Afghan government comes from donations from other countries. India too has contributed substantially in developmental projects in Afghanistan in schools, hospitals, dam, electricity, parliament building and other humanitarian activities etc.

Once the withdrawal of the US forces takes place without amicable sttlement of power sharing/transfer issues between Afghan government and Pakistan, Taliban will take control of entire Afghanistan, and there will be blood bath in Afghanistan. Talibans will settle scores with those who are in and with Afghan government as per Shariya law and tribal culture that means many public executions will take place. Many people from Afghan government will flee the country or defect towards Taliban. As Taliban proposes to set up an emirate for governance of Afghanistan, where Emir will be chosen by religious leaders, and Emir will govern as per strict Shariaya laws and as per local tribal practices. Condition of women and education will further degrade. Many Afghan families will try to flee Afghanistan. Who gives maximum political assylum to Afghans this time has to be seen as Pakistan is already struggling with Afaghan refugees of Mujahidin period.

ISI of Pakistan has influence over Afghan Taliban. Once Taliban come to power and settles, Pakistan would try to use the Afghan Taliban against India. The major issue that Pakistan would capitalise to convince the Taliban for terrorist activities against India is repeal of Art 370 which they will project as forced annexation of Jammu and Kashmir. But, only good point is that Pakistan is in very bad financial conditions and politically isolated in even many Islamic countries, so perhaps the influence of Pakistan on Taliban may not be strong. What will be the response of Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan on the rise of Afghan Taliban will also decide future outcome as both Tehereek-e-Taliban Pakistan and Afghan Taliban also don't get along with each other. However, it appears that control of Afghan by Taliban is not going to be good for India, Iran and even Pakistan. They may also create problem for Uzbekistan, Turkmenistan and Tajikistan. Of course, US will be another target for revenge.