On January 16th, 2024, Iran launched missile strikes into Pakistan's Baluchistan province hitting two strongholds of the anti-Iran insurgent group Jaish al-Adl (Army of Justice) who were responsible for killing personnel of Iranian security forces in December 2023. Pakistan considered it a compromise of its sovereignty by Iran, and Pakistan launched strikes on separatist militants inside the Sistan Baluchistan Province of Iran in a retaliatory attack after two days on January 18th, 2024. The timing of this skirmish between Pakistan and Iran is important in the background of ongoing conflicts in West Asia and elsewhere as the Baloch problem is not new, but more than 75 years old problem. Baloch consider that they are a separate region and their country is occupied by Pakistan, Iran, and Afghanistan, and a major portion of their land is occupied by Pakistan. Concurrently Iran is also in conflict with Iraq and Syria.



We need to look into this problem right from the continuing Russia-Ukraine conflict which started on February 24th, 2022. It is well known fact that Ukraine is fighting a proxy war with Russia on behalf of the U.S. which was estimated to be resolved soon, but it has already dragged on for about two years. This conflict brought Russia more closer to China to meet some of its requirements for war. For the last few years, there has been a cold war-like situation between the U.S. and China on economic and strategic issues. Moreover, there has been a strained relationship between the U.S. and Iran for long. This has made Russia, Iran, and China very good allies and strategic partners.



Dragging of the Russia-Ukraine conflict due to continuous support of the U.S. and West to Ukraine, it has become very difficult for Russia to conclude this war favourably due to a shortage of war supplies. Under such circumstances, it is very likely for Russia to fall back on allies for support. Russia is primarily taking support of China to meet its war supply requirement and North Korea is also supporting Russia at the behest of China. As far as Iran is concerned, to support Russia with its conflict with Ukraine, Iran unleashed its allied extremist groups Hamas, Hezbollah, and Houthi against Israel, a very close ally of the U.S. so that resources of the U.S. and West are divided in two front proxy war. More than three months have passed since the Hamas-Israel conflict started, still, Hamas is still not decimated and it's increasing the problems of Israel.



Jaish al-Adl is backed by the U.S. and Saudi Arabia. It is quite logical that the U.S. used Jaish al-Adl to provoke Iran to attack them on Pakistani soil to open another front of war for Iran. On cue from the U.S., Pakistan would have retaliated and attacked Iran. Pakistan took it as an opportunity to improve its trust and relations with the U.S. and get some financial assistance which is a dire need of Pakistan.

Now the expansion of the conflict is moving towards criticality as many flash points of conflicts such Korean peninsula, Taiwan-China, and South China Sea conflicts exist.  If it is not contained timely, it may lead to another World War which is unaffordable as many countries are armed with nuclear weapons.